That is to say, after the handgun ban went into effect in England, in January of '97, from then until 2003, the homicide rate went up from 11.5 per million to 18 per million. I.E., in the six years following the handgun ban, the murder rate in England went up by 1.5. Meanwhile, in the U.S, from 1990 to 2003, the murder rate fell from 9.8 to 5.5 per 100,000, despite the fact that during that time the number of handguns in the U.S. rose by more than 2 million.
From 2003 to 2011, the murder rate in England fell from 18 per M back to the 11.5 per M that it was at the time of the ban. Meanwhile from 2003 to 2011 the murder rate in the US decreased at a slower rate, from 5.5 to 4.8 per 100K despite millions more guns making their way into the US population.
This suggests that at the very least, handguns don't by themselves drive the murder rate.
Note to Piers Morgan. No, I am not quoting the number of GUN DEATHS. A death is a death.
Moving on then, there are any number of people who take the position that guns are a public health issue. There are several assertions that need to be addressed. The first is that most US suicides are by gun, and that when a person uses a gun to attempt suicide they're more likely to be successful than other methods, so aggressive gun control should reduce the suicide rate. It certainly makes sense on face, and seems worth looking into.
If we look at the effectiveness of suicide attempts, we go to the CDC and find this:
Source: CDC Suicide statistics
Basically, guns and suffocation work. Everything else, not so much.
Suicide rates in the US have been pretty stable for a long time. From 1990 to 2000 they fell from 14 per 100K to 12.5 per 100K, and since 2000 have risen from 12.5 to 13. Of course, during those 20 years, the number of guns in the U.S. increased by many millions, so gun availability doesn't seem to be driving suicide rates. (The black line is everyone. In all nations, men kill themselves more frequently than women.)
Source:CDC Suicide Statistics
It might be interesting to compare that information with a country which has, for all practical purposes utterly banned the personal possession of firearms. Japan is probably the best choice, and when we look at Japan, we find this:
More on public health in the next rock.
4 comments:
Hey Rick much to say but to tired to say. However one stat and an assumption you are making don't wash. Yes it is true that England pre-1918 was a different culture in many ways, but what is missing from your analysis is the number of violent assaults.
In fact English has far more charges of what they refer to gbh or grievous bodily harm. One can argue that many of these knifings would be murders if guns were more plentiful.
Regarding your suicide stats there are a variety of variables the absolute data ignores.
I think we can safely assume that everyone understands many failed suicides were at some level deliberately so, aka cries for help. Therefore looking at actual suicides then raises the question, so you really wanted to kill yourself. Few methods, wrist slitting, pills/drugs and hangings are as effective as blowing your brains out with a gun.
The question this raises of those who truly set out to kill themselves, were not issuing cries for help, when revived were able to be helped to see there might have been better alternatives. By the way that is not to be construed as saying that the right to terminate your own life when poor health, pain or a few other reasons give rise to the idea is an evil that should not be tolerated. Its at best ambiguous in a world where most pain can be managed and many physical limitations can be ameliorated by technology. I am not suggesting as many have in the past that attempted suicide is a crime. Of course the same people often believe suicide is a crime, but then who can you punish? But how many people who have truly set out to kill themselves have survived and gone on to live and enjoy what they thought was worthless. A gun eliminates that option as its 99% effective as a means of self destruction.
So since we are the last two rational people in this world dealing with this issue, I think its time to sit down and talk it out. Mostly because I hat to type. We can then post a video version of the debate, preferably over a few good beers or scotches.
Well.... two quick points since I hate typing on my phone. First, pants you can see from the numbers above guns are not 99 percent effective only about 82 percent yes I'm being a picky nerd.
Second people makiing what is usually called a suicidal gesture generally choose not to use a gun. people who actually want to kill themselves do in fact chose firearms certainly it's possible that thoses that fail may well be rehabilitated and go on to lead lives that are not as being filled as they thought they would be.
there are few things that I dislike as much as suicide. In my opinion is his the most selfish saying that a person can do. The pain caused to those left behind frequently far outweighs the pain that would have been endured by the person who killed themselves. The people I know who have killed themselves pissed me off more than you can imagine.
nevertheless we can look at suicide rates in England and in Australia following the handgun bans, and the decreasing numbers of guns suicides have not resulted in decreasing numbers of suicides of affective completed suicide.
Note that this comment was dictated using andriods text to speech. Dont blame me for the occasional odd word choice.
oh yes I forgot on the subject of assaults Marty since the handgun ban in England the number of assaults and home invasions has increased dramatically I'll find the graphs you post them in the next few days but, it doesn't appear that the handgun ban in Great Britain converted potential murders into a salts instead it appears that the absolute number of assaults has increased since the handgun ban went into place whether or not this is evidence for the criminal for a frayed of homeowners with guns idea or not I'm not making any effort to assert at this time will look at a later but I don't think that you can .2 to rate of assault in violent crime in England as a win for the anti gun people
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